Kraken, the large cryptoexchange in the United States, has published a report predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) will recover between 50% and 200% in the coming months.

The report notes that Bitcoin recorded a 21-month low of volatility on July 24 of only 23%, and stated that the 12 historical lows of BTC volatility (between 15% and 30%) are typically followed by a 140% rise on average.

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Since August is usually the third most volatile month for BTC price fluctuations, Kraken predicts that the upward momentum produced by Bitcoin at the end of July will continue for several months.


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Kraken emphasized that Bitcoin’s recent rebound resulted in the second strongest July for BTC’s price performance since 2011, noting that July was normally the third weakest calendar month for Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin’s 14.5% jump between July 27 and July 31 led to an overall 24% gain for the month, positioning the market for continued momentum, according to Kraken.

Prior to the move, July produced what the report describes as a „repressed pocket“ of low volatility. Ten of the last 12 cases of Bitcoin entering a suppressed pocket have been followed by gains exceeding 196%.

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Kraken estimates that 44% of July’s total trade volume occurred during the last seven days of the month.


BTC correlates with gold


The report also notes that Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with gold jumped to a one-year high of 0.93 on July 31.

The peak comes after the monthly correlation fell to a 10-month low of -0.66 on July 2, contradicting predictions that gold and Bitcoin would emerge as popular „safe“ assets and move at the same pace throughout the pandemic and the COVID-19 recession.