Bitcoin continues its weak rebound from minor support

Bitcoin price rebounded from a minor support area.

We see support at $ 10,350 and $ 10,115.

Resistors can be found at $ 10,638 and $ 10,800

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The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been rising since the low of September 21. This rise seems corrective, however, and BTC should complete another brief downward movement before resuming its bullish movement.

After hitting a low at $ 10,286 on September 21, BTC began an upward movement, which is still ongoing. So far, it has only managed to hit a local high of $ 10,573.

A weak rebound for Bitcoin

The rebound took place at the 0.618 fibonacci level, which is also the minor support at $ 10,350. The next support area is at the fibonacco 0.786 level, near the $ 10,115. The closest resistance is at $ 10,800.

Technical indicators are not showing any sign of a turnaround yet. The MACD has declined over the past three days and turned negative. The RSI has yet to generate any bearish divergence, and is not yet oversold.

The shorter term chart indicates that the current movement would likely be a retracement rather than the start of a new upward movement. Until then, the course was rejected by the fibonacci level 0.382 and relapsed. The 0.5 fibonacci level is found at $ 10,638.

Although there are bullish divergences in the RSI, the consequent rise has already taken place and the trend of the divergence has since been broken. The MACD is on the rise but has yet to reach positive territory.

At the moment, another test of the $ 10,350 area and perhaps the $ 10,115 area seems to be the most plausible scenario.

On September 19, it looks like BTC has started a bearish momentum (in blue below). If the count is correct, the price is approaching the top of wave 4, if it has not already reached it. Another downward movement is then expected. This would agree with the analysis in the previous section.

Also, by projecting the length of wave 1 to the top of wave 4, we get a target of $ 10,121 for the bottom of wave 5. This is the confluence of the fibonacci level 0.786 and a zone minor support.

This formation remains valid as long as the price does not pass the bottom of wave 1, located at $ 10,723.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price should drop to another low, near $ 10,100, before finally resuming its upward movement.

Kraken predicts imminent Bitcoin price increase of up to 200

Kraken, the large cryptoexchange in the United States, has published a report predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) will recover between 50% and 200% in the coming months.

The report notes that Bitcoin recorded a 21-month low of volatility on July 24 of only 23%, and stated that the 12 historical lows of BTC volatility (between 15% and 30%) are typically followed by a 140% rise on average.

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Since August is usually the third most volatile month for BTC price fluctuations, Kraken predicts that the upward momentum produced by Bitcoin at the end of July will continue for several months.

 

Bitcoin’s late July rally defies history

Kraken emphasized that Bitcoin’s recent rebound resulted in the second strongest July for BTC’s price performance since 2011, noting that July was normally the third weakest calendar month for Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin’s 14.5% jump between July 27 and July 31 led to an overall 24% gain for the month, positioning the market for continued momentum, according to Kraken.

Prior to the move, July produced what the report describes as a „repressed pocket“ of low volatility. Ten of the last 12 cases of Bitcoin entering a suppressed pocket have been followed by gains exceeding 196%.

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Kraken estimates that 44% of July’s total trade volume occurred during the last seven days of the month.

 

BTC correlates with gold

 

The report also notes that Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with gold jumped to a one-year high of 0.93 on July 31.

The peak comes after the monthly correlation fell to a 10-month low of -0.66 on July 2, contradicting predictions that gold and Bitcoin would emerge as popular „safe“ assets and move at the same pace throughout the pandemic and the COVID-19 recession.